Keeping Texans fully informed on weather conditions and the ability of the electric grid to respond to them is a priority; Pablo Vegas, president and CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), said during a Wednesday virtual press conference.
That is why ERCOT has introduced the Texas Advisory and Notification System (TXANS), which will offer forecasts three to five days ahead of weather events and potential greater demand for electricity. It also will indicate if conservation or other actions may be required.
The system will inform people on four levels: Normal Grid Conditions, with no need to take any actions; an ERCOT Weather Watch, providing three to five days advance notice of potentially impactful weather; Voluntary Conservation Notice, asking consumers to reduce use if possible at certain times; and an Energy Emergency Alert, which will have several levels, including controlled outages at the most extreme level.
The new communication tools are in addition to the 6-Day Supply and Demand Forecast and Fuel Mix dashboards that are available on the ERCOT webpage.
“TXANS will deliver clear and reliable notifications ahead of significant weather conditions where high demand on the grid is possible,” Vegas said in the press conference. “Keeping Texans informed earlier adds a new level of awareness on grid conditions and any public action that may be needed.”
Consumers are urged to sign up to receive TXANS email notifications and updates from the new webpage and follow ERCOT on social media. Vegas noted that those notifications will not replace Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) notices—which will continue to be sent to a distribution list—and will not indicate that emergency grid conditions are expected.
Vegas said that ERCOT set 11 peak demand records in 2022, with a high of more than 80,000 megawatts on July 20, more energy than the combined peaks of California and New York. Texans were asked to voluntarily reduce power use on July 11 and 13, but no emergency alerts were issued.
“As Texas continues to experience substantial economic and population growth, energy demand on the grid continues to grow at an incredible pace,” Vegas said.
That is why he feels it is important to communicate clearly with consumers.
“The public is following ERCOT and how the grid is performing more closely than ever before,” Vegas said. “We know this and we are committed to keeping communications with the media and with Texans rolling in the right direction.”
Vegas stated that providing “clear and transparent communications” will keep people informed and build trust. He noted that while another hot Texas summer is fast approaching, he is confident the grid can provide enough energy under most conditions.
On May 3, ERCOT released its Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA), a quarterly report that evaluates potential scenarios. On the hottest days, peak demand is projected to go as high as 82,739 megawatts, which would set a new record. It could also precipitate brownouts.
But while the summer promises to be hot, the future of power generation and availability in Texas is cloudy. On May 4, Vegas and Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) Chairman Peter Lake said that ERCOT might not be able to access enough energy from on-demand dispatchable power during times of peak use. Instead, it will have to rely on renewable energy.
It’s a “new reality,” Lake said in a recent POWER report.
“On the hottest days of summer, there is no longer enough on-demand dispatchable power generation to meet demand on the ERCOT system,” he said. “The sun sets faster than the atmosphere cools and our solar generation is all gone. At that point in the day, we will be relying on wind generation on our hottest days. If the wind does not pick up, we will have to rely on our on-demand dispatchable generators. And the data is showing us that on our hottest days, under some circumstances, we may not have enough on-demand dispatchable generation to cover the gap between when the sunsets we lose the solar and when our wind generation picks up.”
Some policy experts are concerned that intermittent sources of energy cannot be relied on to meet demand. Bill Peacock, policy director of the Energy Alliance, said that by their very nature they are not always available.
“The reason renewables can’t be relied on to keep the lights on is that they are the only energy source we use that are completely dependent on the weather,” he said.
Wind and solar generators made up 3% of all electricity produced in ERCOT in 2007, a January Energy Alliance report said. In 2023, their share of the grid has increased to 31% and is expected to jump to 37% by 2024.
Lake noted that while the population of Texas rose 24% from 2008-2020, the amount of on-demand dispatchable power generation available to ERCOT rose just 1.5%.
But Vegas commented that the grid should be fine this summer, saying the system is “as reliable as it has ever been,” and investments to improve the reality of the system have paid off. He noted that the grid will be operated “conservatively,” with generating resources brought online earlier in the day in case there are sudden, dramatic changes in demand or generation.
ERCOT was alerted to the potential problems of relying on renewable sources of power on July 13, 2022; as both solar and wind generation declined at the same time, straining the grid. That was a foreshadowing of possible trouble down the road.
On Wednesday, Vegas vowed to be completely transparent about the grid and the challenges it will face.
“ERCOT remains committed to keeping all Texans informed,” he said. “I believe that if we work together, we can continue to move forward in a positive direction to keep all stakeholders engaged and informed about grid conditions through our new Texans platform.”
Vegas was named ERCOT’s president and CEO in November. He has had extensive experience in the electric and gas industries, including serving as executive vice president of NiSource, group president of NiSource Utilities, and in a variety of senior executive positions with American Electric Power (AEP).
ERCOT manages electric power flow to more than 26 million Texas customers, which represents approximately 90% of the state’s electric load. It is a membership-based 501(c)(4) nonprofit corporation, and it is governed by a board of directors and subject to oversight by the Public Utility Commission of Texas as well as the Texas Legislature.