Texas State University, in partnership with the Austin Police Department (APD), has completed a study analyzing deaths by drowning at Lady Bird Lake over the past 22 years. The research was conducted by the Center for Geospatial Intelligence and Investigation at Texas State University, under the direction of Dr. Kim Rossmo.
The study reviewed 189 drowning cases from 2004 to 2025, with a closer examination of 54 cases. Researchers concluded that there is no evidence pointing to a serial murderer connected to these incidents. “There is no evidence of a serial murderer. Neither direct nor indirect signs of a serial predator were identified. The frequency of incidents has remained relatively stable over the past nine years, varying between two and five drownings annually. The temporal and spatial patterns showed no clustering that would indicate a single offender. Over the 22-year study period, only eight cases occurred near the Rainey Street District, which is an average of about one every 32 months,” according to the report.
The Travis County Medical Examiner’s Office determined these deaths were accidental drownings, with alcohol as a frequent factor. Investigators did not find any medicolegal evidence suggesting foul play such as bridge-pushing. National statistics indicate homicidal drownings are rare—representing just 0.2% of murders in the United States—and it is uncommon for serial killers to use drowning as a method.
Patterns found in Austin match those seen elsewhere in Texas and internationally, including locations like Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Drownings statewide average about 352 per year, mostly involving males aged 22-44. Increased alcohol sales in entertainment districts and greater recreational use of Lady Bird Lake are noted as contributing factors.
The full report can be accessed at https://hdl.handle.net/10877/21901.
Austin Police detectives have investigated each case thoroughly without finding evidence of foul play or serial offending. The findings from Texas State University support APD’s own conclusions and address ongoing social media speculation regarding these incidents.
“Austin Police detectives are committed to fully investigating every case to ensure community safety and provide answers to families,” said Chief Lisa Davis. “We appreciate the expertise Texas State University brought to this project, and their findings reinforce our own investigative work.”
APD continues working with city partners on measures such as improved trail safety around Rainey Street District, which have helped reduce drowning incidents locally.
The department emphasizes its ongoing commitment to transparency and public safety through evidence-based practices.
