California has long been the renewable energy leader of the United States. However, Texas is planning to deploy 50% more solar energy than California in the next three years.
Of these Texas solar projects, only 28% are expected to include attached batteries. In California, 99% of solar projects include batteries.
Although Texas has been and will continue to focus on increasing solar generation, if transmission constraints are not addressed then solar and wind generation will likely begin to fall. Storing generated energy in batteries has been viewed as a solution to large scale transmission issues. However, some energy analysts disagree.
The increased reliance on renewable energy is not without cost. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average price of electricity to residential customers in Texas in January 2022 was 12.24 cents per kilowatt hour. In the same month in California, the cost was 23.58 cents per kilowatt hour.
A similar pattern was notable with industrial customers as well. EIA data showed that industrial customers in Texas in January paid 5.72 cents per kilowatt hour, while industrial customers in California paid 13.83.
Energy analyst Brian Gitt said the Lone Star State is headed down a dangerous path.
“Texas seems to be following in California’s footsteps with regards to overbuilding solar and wind farms and underinvesting in baseload thermal power plants,” Gitt told Austin Journal. "Since 2006 about $66 billion was spent building wind and solar capacity in Texas, and energy developers received $24 billion in taxpayer subsidies. Flawed market design encouraged building new solar and wind generation capacity to collect subsidies instead of ensuring grid reliability and resilience.
“The massive subsidies distort the price of power and erode the economics of keeping reliable thermal generation on the grid," he added. "Both renewable energy credits and production tax credits are paid by the kWh. If the renewables don’t provide kWh to the grid, they don’t get paid those extra compensations. Their finances depend on selling power to the grid [at a loss] and making their money with non-grid compensation.”
Although batteries not being attached to Texas projects may raise concern, they may not be the solution to the problem.
Gitt argued in a Twitter thread in late March that “People falsely assume batteries will save us,” countering the idea with the claim that they 'make power even more expensive.'”
Gitt argues that the amount of battery storage needed to go fully renewable is high, and that “Not only are they [batteries] expensive to buy, but they also end up doubling the size of the solar and wind farms. You need one set of solar panels and wind turbines to provide power to homes, and another to recharge the batteries.”
Gitt drew the connection between wind and solar mandates and higher costs, which is exemplified in the difference between Texas and California costs shown in the EIA data.
“All of this explains why we see the cost of energy increase in places with solar and wind mandates … American households in California pay 80% more, and 11% more in 28 other states with mandates,” he said.
As the Lone Star State follows in California’s renewable energy footsteps, the Golden State's energy situation paints a grim picture for where Texas might be headed. Between 2011 and 2020, electricity prices rose seven times more in California than they did in the rest of the country on average. According to Environmental Progress, prices “will climb as long as California continues investing in renewables.”
Wind and solar produce a record 34% of the power dispatched by ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) in the first quarter of 2022. Together, wind and solar accounted for 71% of generation increases during the quarter.
The amount of installed solar more than doubled in 2021, according to ERCOT data. Solar’s share of power total ERCOT power generation was 4.9% during the first quarter, up from 2.9% over the same period in 2021.
In 2021 total subsidies to wind and solar generation topped $2.4 billion. State and local subsidies, which are completely under the control of Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and members of the Texas Legislature, came in at almost $1 billion.
The increased reliance on volatile renewable energy sources has raised concerns about the stability of the grid following blackouts during the winter storm that hit Texas in 2021. It has been argued that both the increases in renewable subsidies and market share led directly to the extended blackouts and water outages suffered during Winter Storm Uri last year.
Right before the grid collapsed about 1 a.m. Monday, Feb. 15, 2021, wind was supplying only 8.2% of the demand. Solar was providing 0% of the load. The other 92% of the load was being met by natural gas, coal and nuclear-powered generation.
“A survey conducted by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs in mid-March found that more than two out of three, or 69%, of Texans lost power at some point during Feb. 14-20, and almost half, or about 49%, had disruptions in water service,” according to an October report from the Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar. “The storm contributed to at least 210 deaths, and sources cited by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimated the state’s storm-related financial losses would range from $80 billion to $130 billion,” the study said
The unreliability of solar and wind energy was noted as one of three primary causes of blackouts in California on Aug. 14-15, 2020.
“The California and Texas blackouts have multiple contributing factors,” Gitt told Austin Journal. “But policies that reward unreliable solar and wind power and penalize reliable baseload power are the common factor."
Robert Bryce argued in an op-ed commentary in 2020 that Californian energy prices are driving the state’s residents into poverty. At the time of his writing, nearly 20% of residents were living in poverty.
“A growing element of this problem is the cost of electricity. Rising electricity prices disproportionately impact lower- and middle-income families who lack the disposable income to absorb the extra costs,” Bryce wrote.
Gitt quoted from Bryce’s article to summarize the Texas power blackout issue.
“When the ERCOT grid was on the brink of collapse on Feb. 15, that $66 billion was worth next to nothing," he said. "There was no solar production, and of the 31,000 megawatts of wind capacity installed in ERCOT, only about 5,400 megawatts, or roughly 17% of that capacity, was available when the grid operator was shedding load to prevent the state’s grid from going dark.”
Meanwhile, prominent Texans have been advocates for increased renewable energy generation in Texas.
“Clean and renewable energy are a valuable part of America’s future and are closely tied with Texas’ prosperity and success,” Abbott stated in his Clean Energy Week Proclamation in September 2020.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke noted in a tweet that “Texas can leverage our oil and gas expertise to lead on new energy sources like geothermal power, offshore wind and hydrogen. We can create jobs and make America more energy independent. We just need a governor who will make energy innovation a priority.”
Gitt said Texas has placed itself in a potentially very dangerous position, with multiple issues linked to energy choices being made by politicians, not experts in the field.
“The root of the problem is no group or agency has the responsibility for grid reliability in Texas,” he told Austin Journal. “And current policies make energy more expensive and the grid more fragile.”