Austin Public Health (APH) has launched a new online tool designed to model the spread of measles in communities with declining vaccination rates. Developed in collaboration with the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC), this measles outbreak calculator provides an interactive simulation based on real-world data, aimed at helping school districts, healthcare providers, and community leaders understand potential outbreak consequences.
Dr. Desmar Walkes, Austin-Travis County Health Authority, emphasized the importance of the tool: “In communities where vaccination rates dip even slightly, the risk of measles outbreaks rises dramatically,” she said. “This new measles calculator puts that reality into stark relief, showing how fast measles can spread and making the invisible visible.”
Since its launch in March 2025, the tool has been adopted by several major jurisdictions across the United States, including New York City and various cities in Texas. Illinois has also replicated the model for local use.
Austin Mayor Kirk Watson highlighted the city’s innovative approach: “Austin always leads with innovation and collaboration,” he stated. “This measles calculator is a shining example of that approach.”
The project originated from an ideation session led by APH on February 17, 2025. It involved collaboration with multiple academic institutions such as the University of Texas at Austin and international partners like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Lauren Ancel Meyers, Ph.D., Cooley Centennial Professor at The University of Texas at Austin, explained their involvement: “At The University of Texas at Austin, we’ve spent 25 years creating computational tools to fight outbreaks… In collaboration with Austin Public Health, we’ve developed this measles outbreak calculator to help individuals, schools and leaders nationwide understand the rising risks.”
The calculator uses a stochastic SEIR model to estimate outbreak potential based on community vaccination rates. Initially released without active outbreak response or breakthrough infections considerations, it predicts outcomes from 200 simulations where outbreaks are defined as 20 or more new infections.
Adrienne Sturrup, Director of Austin Public Health, commented on public health’s role: “Public health is about giving the community tools to make informed decisions that protect and promote good quality of life outcomes for all,” she said.
Planned improvements for the tool include integrating factors such as breakthrough infections and structured population modeling to ensure it evolves alongside public health needs.
The tool can be accessed online for those interested in exploring its capabilities further.
